Unpredictability as Power? Trump’s Madman Diplomacy and its Implications

Donald J. Trump, the self-proclaimed master negotiator, has already caused plenty of turmoil in his second term as president of the United States. From imposing and withdrawing punishing tariff regimes on key trading partners to cutting ties with Ukraine, spewing Russian rhetoric and even kicking Ukrainian president Zelenskyy out of the White House. It has left American allies and adversaries, policymakers and academics, guessing what his next move might be. Many have wondered: “Is this guy truly unhinged?” Yet, perhaps stirring that question is the exact strategy behind Trump’s foreign policy decisions. 

Trump as a “Madman”

Trump's unpredictability when crafting American foreign policy is nothing new. In his first presidential term, Trump explicitly stated that projecting uncertainty was a strategic tool in his foreign policy. In 2018, at a dinner with North Korea, Trump proclaimed himself a “Madman”. Additionally, when asked about whether the U.S. would ever use military support to defend Taiwan, he responded: “I wouldn’t have to, because he (Xi Jinping) respects me and he knows I am f**cking crazy”,  verbally confirming his foreign policy strategies. In Trump’s current term, his outrageous demands to acquire Greenland and the Panama Canal, as well as making Canada the 51st state of the U.S. were strongly rejected. Nonetheless, the serious responses to Trump's comments illustrate the unease his flamboyant rhetoric provokes. Trump’s idea that he is untouchable, as well as the unconditional backing by his Cabinet and Congress, put no clear limits on what he can or cannot do in his second term. This unpredictability aligns with what scholars term the “Madman theory”, and when executed properly, it can be highly effective. 

The Madman Theory is rooted in political philosopher Machiavelli’s 1517 argument that stimulating madness can be an effective tool to achieve political goals. The theory re-emerged during the Cold War, when the threat of nuclear weapons made an irrational leader controlling the nuclear buttons especially perilous. The sheer destruction capability of these weapons would undermine any rational leader’s intention to use them. Yet, if a madman were to be in possession of nuclear weapons, all rational actors could do is yield or risk being annihilated. Former U.S. president Richard Nixon deliberately sketched an image of irrationality to intimidate North Vietnam into submission. However, as history demonstrates, his approach ultimately failed, as North Vietnam was not convinced of Nixon’s staged irrationality. This demonstrates a key flaw in the execution of the Madman Theory: for it to work, a madman leader would need to convince other leaders that they are entirely irrational, yet still have the capability to sanely engage in negotiations. It requires persuading leaders of foreign governments that yielding will not only be punished, but that yielding contains beneficial results. Therefore, the Madman Theory looks great on paper but is hard to achieve in reality. A perfect balance needs to be struck between being mad and being reasonable enough to strike a deal, otherwise the strategy loses its effectiveness and could pose detrimental consequences.

In Trump’s case, the tariffs he has threatened to impose on Canada, Mexico, and China which hold little to no economic benefits seem to be the work of a madman. His comments on rebuilding Gaza into a “Middle Eastern riviera”, potentially using U.S. troops also caused severe controversy. Notably, Trump’s Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt later stated that no U.S. soldiers would necessarily be part of a plan to rebuild Gaza. Trump’s Secretary of State Marco Rubio dimmed down his comments even further saying that the U.S. would merely help with debris removal, reconstruction and the rebuilding of businesses, demonstrating that his staff were also unsure of his strategies. Although Rubio’s and Leavitt’s suggestions sound more reasonable, it is not what Trump meant. Trump’s irrational approach to these issues convey the image of a madman. Nobody knows exactly what his opinion is or what his next actions might be. All that can be derived from his behaviour, is that it is unpredictable. But, perhaps Trump has played the madman card too intensively. The international community is pivoting away from U.S. support, confirming that Trump’s current irrational foreign policy approach is not working in his favour.

European Implications

Trump’s erratic behaviour has profound consequences for European security, specifically regarding Ukraine. His recent declaration to cut U.S. support for Ukraine has left European leaders with three options: allow a Russian takeover in Ukraine, deploy European troops, or negotiate security guarantees from the U.S. Although the third option seems unlikely due to Trump's unpredictable diplomacy, in the London Summit on the 3rd of March, European leaders still viewed it as the most favourable, as it would serve as a bargaining chip against Russia.

Nonetheless, it seems highly unlikely that the U.S. will provide one, and, even if he does, Trump's unpredictable behaviour runs a high risk of an abrupt U.S. withdrawal. Therefore, the second option, a significant rearmament of Europe, seems to be the option with the most merit. Although it will remain necessary to maintain close diplomatic dialogue with the U.S., Europe must recognize that long-term security cannot be guaranteed when relying on a volatile ally. Strengthening European defence capabilities is no longer just an option, it is an imperative.

Trump’s presidency underscores a broader lesson: unpredictability can theoretically be a powerful tool in foreign policy, but when it erodes trust, it diminishes a nation’s influence rather than strengthening it. The final question remains: Will Europe wake up and adapt before it is too late?

Additional Links

If you enjoyed reading this article and our curious to find out more about Trump’s foreign policy decisions, feel free to visit these links:

An episode of the Rest is Politics Podcast with Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell, both former UK politicians, in which they discuss the various options for European leaders regarding Ukraine.

Campbell, A. & Stewart, R.(2025, March 5). 379. The Four Outcomes for Ukraine. Spotify. https://open.spotify.com/episode/0yDvXzIliVEnnT0nn0UNc9 

An academic overview of the Madman Theory highlighting its potential benefits and costs by Joshua Schwartz, a Postdoctoral Fellow at MIT and the Harvard Kennedy School.

Schwartz, J. A. (2023). Madman or mad genius? The international benefits and domestic costs of the Madman Strategy. Security Studies, 32(2), 271–305. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2023.2197619