Do you think this is just the start?
It's over, finally! After more than three and a half months of a dirty electoral campaign, the Winterwahlkampf (Winter Electoral Campaign) ended on the 23rd of February, 6 pm, when election offices closed across the country. Now, all eyes are on the newly elected (soon-to-be) chancellor, Friedrich Merz. He and his companions won the electoral vote due to a common German conception: set an end to the insufferable instability they suffered throughout the last months (or rather years) and bring Germany back on track. Equipped with this heavy task, the winners of the elections are now set to form a new government and encounter domestic and international challenges that the “sick man” of Europe is facing.
Follow us along these lines for a close-up of electoral dynamics and an exploration of Germany back on the international stage!
Jigsaw puzzle
Before diving into the topic of the aftermath of the elections, let us provide you with a bit of context.
For once, polls have done a good job of predicting the election's outcome. As expected, the center-right Christian Democrat alliance CDU/CSU won the elections, with nearly 30% of the votes. Friedrich Merz announced that the coalition would be made with the Socialists of the SPD (who got more than 16% of the vote), and negotiations are already underway. For the soon-to-come chancellor, talks should be concluded by Easter, and the coalition will include only these two parties.
One key point that marked the elections was the massive rise of the far-right party AfD, which cast nearly 20% of the votes. This score is unprecedented since the Second World War federal legislative elections. It reflects a historical and social reality, still very present and shows a clear division between the former East and West Germany. The former FRG (Federal Republic of Germany, in the West) voted in the majority for the CDU/CSU, while the GDR (German Democratic Republic, in the East) voted for the AfD. The map that emerges from the election shows an edifying division, still 35 years after the reunification.
One explanation for this vote is that East Germany is still less economically and industrially powerful. Indeed, on this map, we see that the factories are located in West Germany. Thus, the East feels left aside.
Also, as a result of this division, the Eastern regions have higher unemployment and a lower GDP per Capita than in the West, and the unemployment is higher in former GDR, which are both factors that contributed to the rise of the far-right.
Support for the AfD also came primarily from the youth, where more than 20% of the 18-34, according to the Deutsche Welle, supported the AfD, denouncing their precarious condition due to high inflation. Also, it is harder to engage in the future in this context. On the other hand, some young Germans are very worried about the rise of the far-right. They regret that the opposition vote was done through supporting the AfD.
The 18-24 generation also voted for the left-wing party “Die Linke” (25%, according to the Deutsche Welle), also a way to express their discontent and their will for change. A student I met told me that he saw the Socialist Party as “an old party” that would work with the right, de facto not leading wide-left politics. They supported Die Linke and were happy that the party got seats in the Bundestag; they represent a strong opposition force.
To sum up, the results depict a divided society, helplessly facing, like many European states, a wave of right-wing extremism.
Societal dynamics: Debates on inequalities and immigration
In a recent Euronews interview, a resident of Groß Luckow, a small village where the AFD has fared exceptionally well, reasoned why the AfD appealed to him more than any other party: “They [AfD] just want things to get better. They want foreigners out [...] they just take our money.” In a nutshell, these few words pinpoint the formula that made the Alternative a force in politics.
When talking about getting things right, ‘money’ and ‘foreigners’ are words that never miss.
The words “foreigners out” and “take our money” go together often - and seem to appeal to a whopping 20.8% of Germans.
Lilian Tsourdi, a professor in Migration Law and Governance, pointed out the “instrumentalization” of migration as a scapegoat for deeper problems of socioeconomic inequalities in a recent debate in Maastricht. Migration and socioeconomic inequalities are thus being thrown in the same pot - and the AfD uses this for its purposes. Blaming migration for socioeconomic inequalities is wrong - not because complaints are not understandable, but because they are misdirected in their recipient.
To explain this, I will shed a view on regions where the AfD has ‘historically’ been strong: the German east. Underneath the waving flag of reunification, this region has lost much of its financial and industrial assets in the ´90s, when thousands of Eastern German companies had been sold to Western bidders much below market value. This capitalist ice bath after 40 years of socialist government has been a major factor for continued wealth and income disparity between both parts of the country. This inequality and the aftermath of separation still shape an intranational divide that is blurred by real and merely perceived differences between East and West.
For long, this has resulted in Eastern Germany being the stronghold for Die Linke, a late-socialist party making the case for the exploited. Common to Die Linke and the AfD is a certain anti-establishment, anti-Berlin stance that translates regional grievances into political leverage. These anti-establishment stances are fair to a certain extent. When people went on the streets in ´89 and fought for unification, they fought for “Wir sind ein Volk” (“We are one people”). The national government should foster the people and not separate them.
The AfD is now flourishing by combining its anti-establishment stance with hatred against the Other - mainly immigrants who arrived in Germany in the wake of the 2015/16 refugee crisis. New uncertainty combined with old inequalities and skepticism toward Berlin yielded fertile ground for populist solutions - which are, by the way, wonderfully easy to utter when you are not the one actually in charge. This has continued the estrangement between West and East and created political maps that resemble a divided Germany redrawn.
Berlin will now do good to show that it, too, can ‘get things better’. With a quasi-monopoly to speak to the people's concerns, the AfD can continue to sow hatred towards the Other, the Stranger. Demonstrating that you can “get things better” means not expressing disbelief or shock about inconvenient electoral results. No, Berlin needs to show that it can address real socioeconomic inequalities while not scapegoating anybody. Rather, it needs to use integrative force to make one people work towards the common good of the country, which, in these times, must be sought in economic stability and growth.
This will put the steering wheel back in the center direction and make Germany a reliable partner internationally, too.
Steering the ship
In the last years, Germany was seen as the Sickman of Europe. However, the arrival of Friedrich Merz brought a glimpse of hope in European capitals, seeing in him an opportunity to bring back Germany as a key player in Europe.
Still, one question comes to mind: Does Europe need Friedrich Merz?
As the writers of this article are German and French, one side of the question we discussed was whether relations between our two countries would improve. Looking at the latest political movements, we could say that Friedrich Merz aligns with French President Emmanuel Macron, on his vision for Europe. Both leaders are willing to relaunch a strong Franco-German partnership, which will make the EU move forward. This relationship was rather weak between Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron, which slowed the European movement at a crucial time for the continent's future.
Merz and Macron share a common ideology, as the new chancellor is also known to be a francophile. Their relationship is expected to be fruitful. As a symbol, Friedrich Merz visited Emmanuel Macron in Paris only 3 days after winning the elections.
However, challenges may arise due to ideological divergences. Neither has the same strategy to come out of the actual crisis, which will bring disagreements between them for future defense spending or troops sending, even if Germany is rethinking its strategy. Still, France and Germany appear to be determined to cooperate and strengthen Europe. Thus, Europe needs Merz to have a strong Franco-German partnership.
This new dynamic comes just in time. Facing a very difficult geopolitical context, Europe is condemned to a drastic change of leadership, which should encourage new countries to be involved in the European Union. A prior example of this initiative is Poland, with its Europhile leader, Donald Tusk, keen to work with Merz and Macron on a new European leadership.
Most importantly, Europe is now on its way to gaining independence from the United States and developing its defense capacities. Friedrich Merz, breaking with the Atlantist vision of its predecessors, is at the forefront of the European autonomy project, claiming that Europe should be independent of the United States. He also raised criticism in his party, agreeing to ease the regulations on defense spending regarding the debt brake in Germany, in opposition to the economic austerity in Germany.
Merz seems to be making a lot of concessions to face the actual European challenges. So, we could say that Europe needs Merz to have strong leadership.
A new departure
There were no major surprises in these elections, as the results were close to expectations. Germany is back at the center of the game, led by a conservative chancellor during a very difficult geopolitical context. The bigger question on German and European minds now is: Where do we go from here?
As explained, Merz says he is ready to make concessions on spending rules, and he is reviewing the order of international relations by distancing himself from the U.S. and taking the lead in the EU... To all those wondering whether Europe is capable of facing up to today's challenges, Merz could confidently reply: Wir schaffen das (we’ll manage it) - together!
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