On January 15, 2025, after 15 brutal months of conflict, a temporary ceasefire deal was finally reached between Israel and Gaza militants. The truce, negotiated over several months with the mediation of the U.S., Qatar, and Egypt, started on January 19. The agreement was based on a proposal originally put forward by U.S. President Joe Biden in May 2024. The deal aims to bring an end to hostilities and secure the release of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza in exchange for Palestinian prisoners detained in Israel.
But how does this ceasefire work? The deal is structured into three stages, each representing a crucial step toward a broader peace, or at least a temporary pause in the violence. Let’s break it down.
Stage 1: Introducing a fragile peace
The first stage of the ceasefire, which started on January 19, was designed to last 42 days. It kicked off with the release of hostages on both sides. Gaza militants, who captured 251 hostages on October 7, began releasing them in groups. So far, 15 hostages have been freed, and three more Israelis were released.
In return, Israel agreed to release 1,900 Palestinian prisoners, many of whom are women and minors. Since the truce began, hundreds of these prisoners have already been freed, and these liberations drew large celebrations across the Palestinian territories. Crowds flooded the streets of Gaza, especially near Khan Younis hospital, where people gathered to welcome home the released detainees. Families like that of Arbel Yehoud who was recently freed from Hamas captivity, are celebrating bittersweet reunions while holding onto hope for the release of their remaining loved ones.
“Our Arbel has been returned. However, our mission is not yet complete.”
Arbel Yehoud’s Family
The ceasefire also marked a pause in military operations. Israeli forces began withdrawing from densely populated areas in Gaza, including the strategic Netzarim Corridor which is a key military zone that had effectively split Gaza in two. This has allowed displaced Palestinians to return to their neighborhoods for the first time in months. But despite the positive developments, the ceasefire remains fragile. Just a few days before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Washington, former U.S. President Donald Trump openly expressed doubts about the truce holding up, saying that there are "no guarantees" it will last.
Stage 2: Negotiating a Lasting Peace
As of this week, we’ve technically entered the second phase of the ceasefire. This stage, set to 16 days after the beginning of stage one, focuses on negotiating a permanent peace agreement.
Key discussions will revolve around the release of the remaining hostages and a full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. Negotiations have thus already begun, Netanyahu met with U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, a crucial figure in the talks, to discuss the next steps. On Tuesday, Netanyahu met Trump in Washington and on Wednesday February 5th, Trump got back into his real estate magnate shoes by stating he wanted to turn the Gaza strip into the new go-to luxury vacation spot. This bold statement sparked strong international reactions. Emmanuel Macron expressed his fervent opposition to a forced displacement of the Palestinian population in Gaza, while Jordan and Egypt also shared their unwillingness to host a wave of palestinian refugee. On the other side, Netanyahu highlighted the fact that this project could “change the course of history”, while still showing hesitancy facing the US president’s statement.
The relationship between Netanyahu and Trump is… complicated. During Trump’s previous term, he showered Netanyahu with political victories, including the signing of the Abraham Accords, relocating the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, and recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. But their personal rapport hasn’t always been smooth. Before Tuesday, the Israeli media was already buzzing with speculation about how this meeting will go.
According to a columnist in Israel’s Yedioth Ahronoth, Netanyahu was likely to test the waters with Trump, trying to figure out what makes him tick. The writer warned Netanyahu to be cautious: “Trump is at the pinnacle of his life, at peak strength, and with thin patience. You've been duly warned.”
Adding to the drama, Trump has taken partial credit for brokering the ceasefire, even though it was largely based on Biden’s original plan. Meanwhile, Netanyahu has repeatedly stressed that this truce is only temporary and that Israel reserves the right to resume military operations if Hamas fails to comply with the agreement.
Stage 3: The Long Road Ahead
If all goes well in Stage 2, the third and final phase of the deal will focus on long-term goals. This includes the return of the bodies of all deceased hostages and the daunting task of reconstructing Gaza, which is a process expected to take years. Humanitarian aid has already surged into the region since the ceasefire began, although tuesday, Hamas accused Israel of procrastinating on allowing access to humanitarian aid into Gaza. Nevertheless, the full-scale rebuilding effort will require massive international support.
However, optimism is tempered with caution. The situation remains pretty fragile, and any misstep could unravel the progress made so far. These concerns are shared by the Israeli non-profit organization Gisha, whose goal is to protect the freedom of movement of Palestinians and Gaza residents. In a statement made on January 16th 2025 they stated that they were “hopeful but not optimistic about the ceasefire” adding that “without Israel recognizing and fufilling its obligations to Palestinians living under occupation in Gaza and the West Bank, the war on Palestinian lives doesn’t end, it just continues in a different form”.
Netanyahu’s meeting with Trump was crucial, not just for the future of the ceasefire but also for the broader direction of U.S.-Israel relations under Trump’s administration. Trump’s return to power has already led to noticeable shifts in U.S. policy. Sanctions on Israeli settlers accused of violence against Palestinians have been lifted, and a previously blocked shipment of 2,000lb bombs was approved. Moreover, administration is stacked with pro-Israel figures, raising concerns about the potential expansion of settlements in the occupied West Bank which is widely considered illegal under international law.
As the ceasefire deal progresses, much depends on the success of the current negotiations. Will the truce hold long enough to transition into a permanent peace? Or will the situation spiral back into conflict once again? For now, the second stage of the ceasefire offers a bit of hope. But the path to peace is a long and uncertain one. With Netanyahu seeking support from Trump and tensions still simmering, the coming weeks will be critical in determining what the future holds for Israel and Gaza.
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