December is finally here and is supposed to be the “most wonderful time of the year”! However, this week, many sudden developments occurred on the global stage. Here’s a roundup of this week’s news, which promises a more uncertain year-end than ever.
A country in eruption
An offensive of Syrian Islamic rebels (a group named Hayat Tahrir Al-Cham) and Kurds (who are supported by the USA) is defeating Bashar Al-Assad’s troops and Iranian proxies, suddenly awakening a conflict in a burning Middle East. The Rebels entered Damas on Sunday, overthrowing Bashar Al-Assad’s regime after more than 50 years of ruling by his party. The Syrian leader found refuge in Moscow, according to Russian authorities.
This is a reaction to the intensification of the attacks on Idlib by Assad’s army. For several years, the front lines of the conflict were fixed, and Assad was again a political actor in the region, mostly after October 7th.
An escalation in this conflict brings more instability to the region, engaging new actors (Iran and Russia are supporting Assad). It will also draw a new map of the regional balance of power. American President-Elect Donald Trump declared on Saturday, "Syria is a mess, but is not our friend” and argued that the USA should stay out of this conflict, reflecting a continuation of his non-interventionist approach.
Political chaos in South Korea
This week was marked by rumored unrest involving South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol and its decision to use Martial Law. Facing challenges in passing his budget in Parliament, he reportedly accused the opposition of engaging in “anti-state activities” and “being dependent on North Korea.” This led to tensions as the military temporarily blocked the Parliament building. Some lawmakers succeeded in entering the building (by scaling walls and barriers) to adopt a resolution against the alleged measures.
People went to the streets to show their opposition. Under public pressure, the rumored restrictive measures were rescinded, although public pressure remained high. This procedure recalls the country's past, which was a military dictatorship between 1962 and 1987. The Republic was only established in 1948. So, it is a very fragile regime that is constantly on edge.
The President is very unpopular and authoritarian. He is also accused of corruption. However, the impeachment procedure failed on Saturday, maintaining the president in power.
“EU-ncertainty”
The new European Commission officially started its mission on Sunday, Dec. 1, in a turbulent geopolitical context.
On Thursday, Ursula von der Leyen visited Uruguay to advance the MERCOSUR-EU Free Trade Treaty negotiations. This comes in the context of internal opposition between the European Member States. Countries like France and Poland are opposed to it, while Germany and many other countries are in favor of it. This treaty would open new opportunities for trade and exchanges and, thus, improve the European industrial and economic situation. Moreover, it is a way of diversifying the partners when the relationship between the USA and China is tense. On Friday, she announced that the agreement was settled. Now, the final decision on its adoption is in the hands of the European leaders, and the outcome is very uncertain.
On Wednesday night, the French National Assembly voted to oust Prime Minister Michel Barnier from office, with him his proposal for the 2025 budget. Indeed, the National Rally (Marine Le Pen’s far-right party) joined the leftist alliance “Nouveau Front Populaire” in a non-confidence vote, leading to the collapse of the government.
Since July, the National Assembly has been made up of three blocks, and it is almost impossible to find a common agreement between them to build a Government. Moreover, the Constitution prohibits the dissolution of the Parliament before July 2025. This political incertitude affects Europe, as explained by the BBC. The French deficit and debt will continue to grow (forecasts announce a deficit reaching 6,2% of the French GDP), posing challenges to the Euro Zone. Both France and Germany are stuck in political troubles and, thus, slow the European Union by reducing its unity. There is not any more clear leadership in a time when Donald Trump will come back to power, and Vladimir Putin is utterly aggressive. Eastern countries are adopting defying foreign policies, and Western countries are in trouble.
To bounce back on this reflection about Eastern European policies, Romania was supposed to have the final of its presidential election this Sunday, December 8th. However, on Friday, the Romanian top court announced that the election results were canceled after scandals of corruption and opinion manipulation during the first round. Two visions were facing each other, incarnated by the far-right nationalist Călin Georgescu and the liberal pro-European Elena Lasconi. International experts denounce foreign interventions (mostly from Russia) on TikTok to promote Georgescu’s candidature. Elections should be rescheduled, and their outcome will determine the weight of the EU and NATO in this region in the context of the Ukraine War and military activity in this region.
Georgia is experiencing mass protests in reaction to the government’s decision to suspend the discussions on integration into the EU until 2028. This caused a massive popular reaction, demanding new elections after suspicions of corruption during the last legislative ballot (October 26th) favoring the pro-Russian party. These protests are extremely violently reprimanded by the police. The pro-EU president Salome Zourabichvili had appealed to the court to denounce the results, but her appeal was rejected earlier this week. This addresses a new challenge to European leaders in a country that recently (December 2023) received the EU status of “official candidate to the adhesion”.
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