“Je suis Marine”: an Overview of Le Pen’s Embezzlement Conviction

After a meteoric rise in popularity in recent years, far-right French candidate Marine Le Pen was, by far, one of the likeliest winners for the upcoming 2027 French presidential elections. That is until a recent court ruling turned everything upside down. 

On Monday, March 31, following a (long-awaited) political ruling, Marine Le Pen was handed a four-year prison sentence - of which two years are suspended and the rest served under electronic surveillance - and a €100,000 fine. But, more importantly, the sentence immediately barred the candidate from public office for five years, jeopardizing her hopes for the 2027 elections. Sitting in the courtroom's front row, Marine Le Pen abruptly left before the final sentence was delivered. 

Even before the trial’s verdict, support for the nationalist candidate and attacks on France’s judicial independence had already begun. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov unveiled a sudden concern for democracy, denouncing the ruling as a «violation of democratic norms.» He was swiftly joined by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who simply tweeted, “Je suis Marine!”. Of course, a reaction from Elon Musk was unavoidable. Yet, for the sake of our current collective mental health, we decided to leave it at that. 

Now, the questions remain: How did we get there? Has French democracy “been executed,” as Jordan Bardella argued?

‘The System’ or What was Marine Le Pen accused of? 

Before delving into the implications of this trial, it seems first necessary to grasp the charges behind it. In short, Marine Le Pen, her Rassemblement National party (RN), and some two dozen party figures have been accused of orchestrating a deliberate ‘system’ to embezzle European Parliament funds between 2004 and 2016. The court’s judgment is unequivocal: Marine Le Pen played a “central role” in this ‘system.’ 

Digging deeper into the accusations, the defendants are alleged to have misused EU funds intended for Members of the European Parliament’s (MEPs) assistants. Instead, these funds were funneled into Marine Le Pen’s French political party. Put simply, the Party allegedly created ‘fictitious contracts’ to appoint party officials as MEP’s assistants. Consequently, the EU presumed to pay MEPs when, in reality, the funds were going nowhere else but to Marine Le Pen’s inner circle. Among those named are her bodyguard and her chief of staff, Catherine Griset. The latter is, for instance, accused of having spent only 12 hours at the European Parliament from 2014 to 2015, when she was officially listed as an MEP. 

Above all, this ‘system’ allowed the National Assembly to secure ‘extra funding’ for activities that had no connection to the EU. The scale of the fraud is quite astounding, estimated at more than 4.1 million euros – an amount large enough to pay someone on minimum wage for over 180 years.

Democracy on Trial 

This affair raised many questions about the relationship between justice and politics in France. 

Indeed, the French voters are very divided in their reaction. The Rassemblement National denounced a political justice system and was very aggressive towards magistrates, as seen during their meeting on April 6. A man was even convicted of threatening to kill the president of the court that pronounced the Le Pen verdict. The far-right militants are denouncing judicial interference in political life, preventing them from expressing their voice in the upcoming elections, resulting in “stealing the elections.” 

On the other hand, the left-wing parties claim that this decision was justified, and the public reaction from the far-right is a threat to democracy. Regarding the government’s attitude, President Emmanuel Macron argues that “justice must remain independent” and that the “magistrates must be protected.” The leader of the centrist party Renaissance, Gabriel Attal,  also claimed that it is normal for a politician guilty of corruption to be convicted. 

Overall, public opinion is polarized, and some people are questioning the fundamental elements of the democratic system, like the separation of powers. There is a growing mistrust of the different democratic institutions (the Court of Justice and the Constitutional Council), which fragilizes the democratic structure of the French system. 

“In lies we trust”?

Moreover, Marine Le Pen accentuates this narrative. She plays a lot on the “victimhood” rhetoric, which accentuates this defiant feeling towards the judicial institutions. In her speech during the Rassemblement National meeting on April 6, she even compared herself to Martin Luther King, claiming that she has been discriminated against by a “political system” and that she’ll fight, as MLK, for her civil rights, reinforcing her martyrdom narrative. This post-truth, which consists of constructing a narrative different from reality to make a population believe an alternative version of the facts, is extremely dangerous for democracy since it amounts to questioning the very foundations of our system. Emotional or identity-based responses may be eroding space for rational democratic discourse. 

Overall, this trial addresses a very tough challenge to French democracy, putting it at a crossroads between collapse and revival. This was a very bad situation on the eve of the 2027 presidential race. 

Consequences for the Rassemblement National 

To understand the peculiar situation the RN is in, we first have to understand the structure of the party. True to its traditionalist Bonapartist roots, the RN has remained centered around a single family: founded by the father, then led by the daughter, its entire structure, as well as the possibility of the RN’s win in the 2027 elections, relied on Marine Le Pen, and is now threatened by her sentencing. Truth is, few in the party were expecting the immediate enforcement of her ineligibility sentence, viewed as a ‘worst case scenario’, but unlikely decision. Even Le Pen herself declared, the day before the court ruling, that she did not think “[the judges] will go that far.” Well, little did she know…

The vertical structure of the RN partially explains why finding a replacement for the 2027 elections will be easier said than done. While Jordan Bardella, president of the party since 2021, is very popular among the public, he is not so much within his party, and rumors of him as a potential “plan B” for 2027 were quickly discarded by Le Pen herself. Moreover, Bardella’s age and his lack of experience could very easily work against him during a presidential campaign, and deter voters. In short, many would see him running for president — but in 2037. For now, no clear successor has emerged within the Rassemblement National, and the more plausible scenario may be that figures such as Bruno Retailleau, a traditional conservative who shares much of Le Pen’s ideas, reclaim parts of her electorate.

Needless to say, the Rassemblement National took the full hit of the court ruling, which has become crystal clear in their communication. While in recent years, the party had made tremendous efforts to normalize its image, a step necessary to appeal to the electorate missing to win the 2027 elections, their communication strategy did a 180 since the court ruling. It has taken a confrontational and anti-system turn, almost Trumpian in tone: “political death”, “the execution of French democracy”, or “a very dark day” have appeared in the renewed lexicon of the Rassemblement National. This rhetorical shift may play in their favor by attracting an anti-system crowd and reinforcing a feeling of injustice among their fervent supporters. But it might as well rebuke part of the electorate Le Pen was trying to seduce through her normalization efforts — right-wing people who support the RN’s ideas but are uncomfortable with the heavy past of the party.

While what is to happen next remains unclear for now, the appeal’s decision is set to be given during the summer of 2026. Thus, while technically ineligible, Le Pen remains the RN’s candidate for the 2027 elections, with the hopes that the court of appeal will decide in her favor — a longshot, but who knows with French politics!