For the next two weeks, in addition to their weekly magazines and newspapers, millions of Swedes will receive in their mailboxes what reads: ‘Om krisen eller kriget kommer’ (If Crisis or War Comes). Flipping through the yellow 30-page pamphlet, images of bunkers, emergency supplies, and survival instructions paint a scenario that feels both far away and disturbingly close.
The pamphlet – produced by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) – aims to inform Swedish residents on the current risks the country is facing, in terms of armed conflict, natural disaster, etc. and how to best address them. As much as it sends an alarming signal in the current situation, it is not new. It has been distributed five times since the Second World War, notably as part of their Cold War-era defence strategies, with its last edition in 2018. With that said, the current edition is almost twice as long, sharper, and more urgent, reflecting a world that feels more fragile by the day. It ranges from advice on how to talk to children about crisis and war, and how to stop a bleed, to a home preparedness checklist in times of war.
The brochure is made accessible to the widest array of citizens by being both available online and sent out to some five million households. Additionally, it is being translated into multiple languages, and interpreted in both braille and sign language.
The world feels more uncertain than it has in decades. As the introduction to the pamphlet states, “War is being waged in our vicinity. Extreme weather events are becoming increasingly common. Terror threats, cyberattacks, and disinformation campaigns are being used to undermine and influence us.” The Swedish strategy, amidst times of uncertainty, is thus to include every citizen in the defence and preservation of the country’s independence and democracy. Everyone is part of their emergency preparedness plan, and everyone is transparently kept informed.
This new emphasis on a potential armed conflict is especially striking coming from a historically neutral State. Sweden has not been involved in a war since the 1800s, steering clear of the two world wars that reshaped Europe. The government is pursuing a “policy of non-alignment in peacetime and neutrality in wartime, basing its security on a strong national defence”, This has not only been a political stance, but a core of Sweden’s identity. However, that has changed in the past decades. The country’s international cooperation started when it first joined the UN in 1946, NATO’s Partnership for Peace in 1994 and the EU in 1995. This evolution culminated with their formal application for NATO membership in 2022, marking a seismic shift in the country’s identity and coinciding with the outbreak of the Ukraine War.
Following this accession, the Swedish Minister for Foreign Affairs Tobias Billström stated that this was in fact a direct result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. He recognised that the risk of a Russian attack on Sweden could not be excluded, and he reinforced the country’s alignment in NATO’s standing against Russian expansion.
While Sweden’s pamphlet is especially striking because of its historical neutrality, it is part of a broader pattern of preparedness among the Nordic nations. Finland, sharing a significant 1,340 km of borders with Russia, has long emphasised this culture, borne of its wars with the Soviet Union. Now a NATO member, Finland has doubled the alliance’s pre-existing border with Russia. Finland has also stepped up its efforts to warn its population about the threat of a potential conflict, by establishing an online website containing similar information to the one contained in If Crisis or War Comes. Sweden’s other neighbours, Norway and Denmark, have similarly strengthened crisis strategies, ensuring that citizens are equipped for everything from wars to natural disasters. In Norway, this was done by distributing pamphlets as well, while in Denmark, the strategy was deployed online. Together, these efforts highlight a regional ethos: peace is only possible when paired with vigilance.
Nordic countries are often seen as defenders of peace, but that does not mean they undermine the importance of preparedness. Their policies show a deep understanding of internal cooperation, maybe more than what the rest of Europe, and NATO-members, are used to. Sweden’s yellow pamphlet is perhaps not just a guide for its citizens or a relic of Cold War-era defence strategies, but a blueprint for a world that must learn to prepare for the unimaginable.
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