Donald Trump has won the 2024 presidential election. In what was predicted to be one of the closest U.S. presidential elections in history, former President Trump took sweeping control of all battleground states to solidify his 312 electoral votes. Despite two failed assassination attempts, 34 counts of falsifying business records, three other ongoing (soon to be closed) criminal cases, and rampant scandal in his campaign rhetoric, Donald J. Trump will assume the position of 47th President of the United States.
Battleground state breakdown
The Associated Press (AP), announced Donald Trump the winner of the 2024 election Wednesday morning, after he secured 270 votes from the electoral college. It was not until November 10 that all states/electoral college votes were accounted for, the results: Trump had won an overwhelming 312 votes while Harris maintained 226.
The key to Trump’s victory lay in the contested regions known as battleground/swing states. These states are crucial in determining the winner of any presidential election, and they are defined by their ability to remain neutral and uncharacterized as strictly Democratic or Republican. The key swing states include Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona.
As close as this election was predicted to be, Donald Trump's immense control and support from every single swing state was overlooked. Trump maintained support from North Carolina, a state that voted for him in the past three elections, but flipped the remaining six states. While Biden’s victory in 2020 heavily depended on winning the “rust-belt” northern states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Trump’s support from all three of these states paved the way to victory.
As the Electoral College allocates votes to states based on census, ranging anywhere from 3 to 54 electoral votes, Pennsylvania is the most determinant of the swing states as it has 19 electoral votes. The difference in votes between candidates in swing states ranged from as close as 29,000 votes (Wisconsin) to 189,000 votes (North Carolina).
Victory speech at Mar-a-Lago & concession at Howard University
Hours before election results were formally announced by the Associated Press, Trump began a victory speech at his election watch-party event at the Mar-a-Lago resort in West Palm Beach, Florida. In a 30-minute speech addressing his supporters, Trump declared that “this was the greatest political movement [MAGA] of all time that is about to reach a new level of importance to help our country heal.”
He took the time to provide gratitude for all his supporters, congratulate and thank all of his staff, advisors, and running mate J.D. Vance, and personally recognize all of his children who have remained beside him through the test of time.
In celebrating the victory, Vice President-elect J.D. Vance described the achievement as “the great political comeback in American history." The speech is the first of many to follow, in the days following the election Trump also received congratulatory phone calls from opponent Kamala Harris and current President Biden. Biden’s call also served the purpose of arranging a meeting in the Oval Office to coordinate the logistics of the transition.
During her concession speech at her alma mater Howard University, Harris spoke that while she concedes this election, she does not “concede the fight that fueled this campaign. The fight for freedom, for opportunity, for fairness, and the dignity of all people”. 100-day campaign…
For the Democrats and Harris supporters, her loss is especially hard-hitting Harris, a prosecutor, then district attorney, turned attorney general, promoted to Senator, and finally, Vice President, made her what many believe to be an exceedingly qualified candidate over Trump who made his career in the business sector and whose first time running for public office was the 2016 presidential election.
“Dictator on Day 1” and Agenda 47
Trump infamously remarked that he would be a dictator on his first day in office in a town hall event in Iowa, specifically regarding hardline policies on immigration and expanding oil drilling projects.
Trump has made clear his plans if elected through various speeches during his campaign and online. A few of his 45 promises stated on his website include no welfare for illegal aliens, protecting students from “the radical left and Marxist maniacs”, a call for immediate de-escalation and peace, and rebuilding America’s “depleted military”.
Immigration and secure borders have been one of the biggest concerns of his voters and his policies have demonstrated that to the highest degree. Mass deportation, sealing the US border, and sending troops are a few of the hardline promises Trump has made concerning immigration policy.
Other promises include raising tariffs of 10% to 20% or higher on foreign goods, a plan that many economists say could lead to higher prices. Further economic policies include tax cuts for senior citizens and homeowners. Regarding inflation, one of the most relevant topics amongst voters, a Republican National Committee spokesperson remarked that when elected, Trump would “cut taxes and unleash American energy to lower prices on groceries and other goods”.
Trump's first presidency was defined by his unpredictable and sporadic nature; his second presidency will likely follow the same pattern only now with a completely new perspective on international landscapes.
For Russia and Ukraine, it is safe to assume that military aid for the country at war will be cut. In statements made earlier this year regarding the suspension of aid, Trump vowed to immediately “have that settled” upon re-election. As for Trump and Puitin’s relationship, it remains undetermined. Following the announcement of Trump’s election Putin called to congratulate Trump and speak on his willingness to begin “talks” with the president. As both leaders have shown admiration and passiveness for one another, how the interplay between the war and their relationships will unfold is difficult to predict.
For Israel and Gaza, the second major global conflict that Trump will be inheriting, his victory does not signal hope for Palestinians. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly enthusiastic about a second Trump term and former Israeli ambassador to Washington, Michael Oren, has stated how Trump “has the most pro-Israel record of any president”. Trump has encouraged Netanyahu to “finish the job”, a sentiment that strung fear into the hearts of many Palestinian advocates.
As Trump may take action to withdraw from the Paris Agreement a second time, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres described the decision to do so as “crippling.” Trump formally ceased U.S. participation in the Paris Agreement during his first presidency under the pretense of “unfair economic burdens” placed on American workers, taxpayers, and businesses.
As the 2024 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) is set to take place from Nov. 11-22 in Azerbaijan; U.S. Climate envoy John Podesta declared that Donald Trump can only slow, not stop, U.S. climate pledges. Podesta also stated that despite the Trump administration's disregard for the climate, “the work to contain climate change is going to continue in the United States.”
One of the final hot topics on Trump’s presidency agenda is the pardoning of the January 6 rioters. With over 1,500 charged for the Capitol insurrection, it remains unclear who exactly will be pardoned. In June, Trump campaign spokesperson Karolime Leavitt said that the President-elect would decide on a “case by case basis” who will be pardoned.
What’s to come?
In the immediate days post-election, there was a wide range of speculation attempting to address what exactly went wrong for Harris. In taking into account her 107-day campaign length and record-breaking achievement of raising nearly $1 billion, there are many factors to be accounted for. The one common denominator: the cult of personality surrounding Donald Trump remains as steadfast and as strong as ever. As Trump won the popular vote with just shy of 75 million votes, the majority of American registered voters feel confident in his ability to better represent the nation than the Biden administration did. Further powerful sentiment lies in his commitment to put “America first” when tackling foreign policy and to “Make America Great Again” when dealing with domestic affairs.
This next era of the Trump administration will be accompanied by the handcrafted Trump Supreme Court (largely defined by the three judges he appointed during his first term), and a republican majority in both the House of Republicans and the Senate. With this republican win, many can expect the easier implementation of GoP policy proposals and the forwarding of their agenda. There is the off-chance that any extremist rhetoric used for populist talking points will be dialed back and the Trump administration and the GoP will get more complacent in victory.
Democratic lawmakers, spearheaded by California governor Gavin Newsom, are racing to “Trump-proof” different aspects of their state constitution including cementing funding towards the attorney general’s office, state agencies, and climate policies. Blue states across the nation are taking part in this trend to bond their policy priorities regardless of Donald Trump’s agenda.
President-elect Donald Trump will benefit greatly from the red majority in all branches of government. With the recent immunity ruling done by the Supreme Court and the fact that the U.S. Justice Department cannot prosecute a sitting president (Watergate era precedent), Trump’s three current criminal trials will be set to wind down/close before he takes office. With sentencing for the Hush Money Case set to take place on Nov. 26, the Federal Election Interference Case was recently put on pause on behalf of Special Council Jack Smith, and the Classified Documents Case and Georgia Election Interference Case have remained in the early stages of indictment.
A demographic breakdown: who Trump has to thank
These election results highlight the different demographics of the American people. Certain groups such as Latino men and young white men have been the most significant in this election cycle.
Trump made great gains in the Latino community who have usually voted primarily Democratic. One explanation for this shift is economic concerns: inflation and high interest rates led voters to believe the previous administration was in dire need to be replaced. Additionally, the Latino population is primarily working class, a demographic that Republican’s continuously outperform Democrats in.
Young men are another key group in determining the fate of the election. Trump ran a strong campaign directly targeting men, with one ad stating, “You did everything right in life, you went to college, you got a job, and now the Democrats and women want to hold you back.”
In appealing to the gender divide and traditional masculine roles, Trump maintained the support of right-wing podcasters/influencers like Steven Crowder, Charlie Kirk, Ben Shapiro, and many more. In an interview with podcaster Joe Rogan, which gained over 45 million views, the catering to the “manosphere” and continuing radicalization of young men proved advantageous.
Regarding women, while the overall population of female voters voted for Harris, white women primarily voted for Trump. This is a decrease for the Democratic ticket compared to the last election cycle as Harris failed to capture the same margin of women voters as Biden or Clinton.
Personal message - Bovée
In Maastricht University, a relatively liberal environment and populated with individuals who are less directly connected to the US, the authors of this article have one plea; please know that this election does not represent who we are and what we stand for, please know that our country is so much more than one man and most importantly, do not lose hope that the United States is a lost cause. Millions of Americans will be directly impacted by these results but will continue to fight for what they believe in, and while outrage is natural, we also plead for empathy and understanding.
While this result is incredibly disappointing for many people, we have and will continue to fight to protect the rights of women, the LGBTQ community, and all marginalized groups.
When it comes to living as an American, it is easy to focus on our dark history and our setbacks, but as much as America is about its terrors and its wars, it is equally about its social movements and fights for justice. All the good and all the bad exist together and are equally important.
Ultimately, when it comes down to a direct comparison of character, economic policy, and protection of human rights, we believe Harris was the candidate who surpassed Trump in every measure. But alas, a candidate who resorted to name-calling, bullying, and an outright lack of human decency is now set to return to the White House.
Although fear and uncertainty are a natural response, we mustn't lose hope. In the words of the current Vice President, only when it's dark enough can you see the stars.
Personal message - Anderson
This loss in U.S. presidential history will be talked about and studied for years to come. Although not the only thing dictating the fate of the election, there seems to be a clear gender divide guiding the results of the election (along with weakened rhetoric on immigration and lack of economic populism). We as a nation have let down our women, LGBTQ+ individuals, and minority groups: from sea to shining sea.
As angry and disappointed as I am in the 2024 election results I know America has seen a lot worse. This new era of a final Trump presidency will be challenging, but things are rarely as bad as they seem. Your imagination, anticipation, and fear of what is to come is often worse than actuality. Do not misunderstand me, Trump’s first presidential term was consequential, but not as tumultuous as estimates made it seem. Fear will always succeed in reality.
For American expats here in Maastricht who are heartbroken by these election results: keep a still and calm mind. We have no choice but to play the hand we’re dealt and work towards achieving America we’ve been taught about.
The opinions expressed within this article are solely the author’s and are not affiliated with either the Maastricht Diplomat or UNSA.
Comments