The outbreak of the Ukraine War in 2022 pushed Eastern Europe into a perilous situation. A region historically ridden with imperial strife, humanitarian catastrophes and shifting state borders was once again in danger of falling into its historical predicament. The relative peace and stability of the post-Soviet era was yet again upended by violence. However, many are optimistic that the response to this shock has not weakened, but in fact empowered the common identity of these nations.
Due to the Cold War, Eastern Europe has always been considered a backwater for the West. Artificially lumped together as a sort of ‘other’ Europe, with conflict and poverty. Jacob Mikanowski’s book Goodbye Eastern Europe explores such a fallacious understanding of this region which disregards its inherent cultural, ethnic, linguistic and religious complexities. Being a borderland between different empires, the collateral effect of such diversity has been constant struggle.
It seemed that this pattern would once again repeat with Putin’s invasion on the 24th of February, 2022. The war in Ukraine became to be considered as the ‘The first major war in Europe since World War II’, which threatened the institutional foundations and identities that have developed in the region in the peaceful years from the 90s. In this period, many post-Eastern bloc countries managed to converge at a breakneck pace to ‘Western’ institutional and economic standards. Accession to NATO and EU offered a prospect of stability and prosperity unseen in many countries’ history. Poland with a robust economic performance became a potential challenger for Germany, and Estonia, a pioneer in digitalisation with many others following suit. However, the turmoil of history once again seemed to threaten these stellar achievements.
To the surprise of many, it was precisely the shock of the Ukraine war that inspired unity in this region. Poland, despite being a conservative nation with a strong anti-immigration sentiment was suddenly taking in millions of Ukrainian refugees. The Czechs, a largely isolationist and anti-NATO country, were now actively campaigning for coordinated Ukraine support on all institutional platforms. Even the Baltics, with little diplomatic might now have the loudest voices for unconditional support for Ukraine. Suddenly, the ‘other Europe’ became united at the forefront of European policy-making. The recent appointment of former Estonian Prime Minister Kallas, as foreign policy chief for the EU is but one example of that. Rather than being ever divided and conflictive, the region now stands in almost complete unity for the common cause of security.
The unity is only almost complete, because nations like Hungary and Slovakia have been deliberately undermining such unity. It often seems that the ‘not our war’ narrative still prevails as an attractive political slogan in some nations. Leaders have mobilised deep-rooted fears about the threat of war and rejected cooperation, in the hope that abstention will spare them from conflict. In fact the further south one goes, in countries like Serbia, Bulgaria or Macedonia, the support for Ukraine dwindles. Division and selfishness still prevail, despite the lessons from history that should have been learned about the nature of Russian aggression.
Nevertheless, this renewed confidence in Eastern Europe may spread further. In fact, cooperation between Eastern European states is not new. Take the Visegrad Four alliance, between Hungary, Poland, Czechia and Slovakia, or the Three Seas Initiative encompassing all countries between the Baltic, Adriatic and Black Seas. However, these alliances were still weakened by a lack of leadership and often only served temporary needs. For instance, the conflict over support for Ukraine, wrecked the Visegrad Group in 2022, which now exists in name only.
The urgency to cooperate in Eastern Europe is acute. Not just on Ukraine, but on other key issues. It is clear that Russian aggression will persist through the years and unity between nations will be required. Particularly, with the recent reelection of Donald Trump, the trans-Atlantic alliance could be on weak footing.
Fortunately, we can already see signs of nations willing to harmonise further on fields of defence, energy security or more widely with the creation of a common capital market. Furthermore, the internal economic and political instabilities in Germany and France have left the EU with a power vacuum. A confident, resolved Eastern Europe may as well fill in this leadership gap. But for this to occur, it needs to continue to learn from its past identity. It will only succeed if this diverse identity inspires more cooperation, and not further conflict.
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