Plot Twist
I don’t have the age to vote. Still, my age didn’t stop me from being surprised by last June Parliament’s dissolution and anxious for the future of my country.
For this pressing issue, I took part in the electoral campaign. I went to the Sunday markets and met a lot of people to discuss the upcoming elections. To us, staying inactive was not an option. Voting was essential and had to be transmitted and communicated to encourage voters to go to the polls and oppose the extreme right. The elections beat a mobilization record.
To me, the dissolution was an unnecessary risk for French democracy and its institutions, with the risk of bringing the far-right into power before 2027. Indeed, the results of the European elections were not a relevant argument to justify a dissolution of the National Assembly, as they were not translating a French political reality. However, Emmanuel Macron used these results as a justification for his actions and plunged the country into political chaos.
Now, after several months of political turmoil and a historic non-confidence vote in early December, “France steps into the unknown”, as titled The Economist. This political crisis is unprecedented and seems to get even worse as time passes. Before analyzing the possible solutions to solve the actual crisis, let’s take a step back and try to summarize the previous episodes.
Dead End
After the Second Round of July’s legislative elections, the National Assembly is as divided as ever. The French Parliament is made up of 577 seats, meaning that the absolute majority is 289 deputies. However, three blocks emerged from the polls, making it impossible to secure a majority. On the left, the “Nouveau Front Populaire” (New Popular Front, the left-wing alliance built with the Greens, the Socialists, the Communists, and the far-left party La France Insoumise), arrived ahead of the polls and got 193 seats. In the center, President Macron’s block received 166 seats. Lastly, the extreme-right block won 132 seats. The Conservative right Les Républicains inherited 47 seats. So, none of these parties had the absolute majority, and thus, compromises were needed to find a stable government majority.
In early September, the President appointed the right-wing, former Brexit negotiator for Europe, Michel Barnier, as Prime Minister. His government was made of centrist and conservative figures, disappointing the left that claimed legitimacy to be in the government, as they arrived first in the legislative ballot. This created a tense climate, making agreements impossible. The status quo lasted for several weeks in the fall, during which the budget negotiations appeared like a mountain to climb for Michel Barnier, putting the future of his government on the edge.
On December 4th, after the use of Article 49.3 of the Constitution (allowing a Government to have its law adopted without the vote of the lawmakers) to pass the annual budget, the Parliament voted a non-confidence vote, leading to the collapse of the Government. The passing of this non-confidence vote represents a historical landmark, as it was the first time it’s passed since 1962. As of today, it is the illustration of Emmanuel Macron’s failure to listen to the popular opinion that expressed a wish for change in French politics, also showing the extent of the division of the political landscape and the struggles to find consensus.
After this vote, the ball was again in the President’s hands, and it was up to him to find a solution to step out of the crisis he plunged the country into. After a few days of interviews with party leaders and speculation in the media, Emmanuel Macron reluctantly nominated his former colleague and ally François Bayrou on December 13th. The President wanted to nominate one member of his close guard to be sure of its fidelity and to be on the same line. However, according to the press, Emmanuel Macron received Bayrou for two hours on the morning of his nomination. During this meeting, the potential Prime Minister insisted on being nominated, as he was not the favorite in Macron’s plan. The meeting turned into a severe argument between the two men, but eventually, Bayrou was appointed Prime Minister.
The new government leader is working on a governing team to drive the country out of the political, economic, and social crises. Right after his nomination, he already faced an unexpected challenge after the devastating Cyclone Chido hit the island of Mayotte, France's poorest department. According to the authorities, it resulted in hundreds of victims and thousands of injured, destroying all the precarious habitations.
A contagious instability?
This crisis affects Europe and lowers the French voice on the global stage. Following the article on Germany published in the Maastricht Diplomat in November, we can argue that the effects of this crisis on the French influence will be comparable to the German loss of influence. Indeed, the French economy is in real trouble, facing a sky-rocketing deficit (6,1% of the GDP in 2024, far from the European criteria), in addition to its political chaos. Germany also faces political and economic troubles. This loss of influence of its leaders could be a serious risk for the EU in an uncertain global context.
This loss of France’s European influence was seen with Ursula Von der Leyen’s initiative to finalize the MERCOSUR-EU Free Trade Agreement without warning Emmanuel Macron, as France is firmly opposed to the ratification of this treaty. The Head of the Commission benefited from the French weakness in agreeing with South American leaders on a treaty. Although Member states still have to adopt the treaty, it shows how the French loss of influence will have immediate effects on Europe and French foreign policy.
What now?
By naming François Bayrou as his Prime Minister, Emmanuel Macron decided to carry on with his political program and to keep the same strategy without building a consensus with other social-democrat forces. The 73-year-old new Chief of Government is a centrist politician and has the early support of the President, even if less aligned today. Naturally, he will pursue Emmanuel Macron’s policies, with a similar vision, and will try to win the support of the right side of the Assembly. The left parties already claimed that they will not take part in the yet-to-be-formed government.
In my opinion, a coalition government would have been the only way to overcome the actual crisis. France should be inspired by the German or by the European Parliament's functioning, based on making agreements and building bridges between the political parties and, thus, succeeding in having a stable coalition. Even if this is not the French way of doing politics, it would be the most efficient and respectful way to go through the actual turmoil.
This coalition could go from the Green and Socialist parties on the left to the Conservatives on the right: an alliance of Social Democrats and Republicans. As an example, the former German chancellor Angela Merkel governed with a coalition made of Christian Democrats and Socialists. Moreover, with such a coalition, it would have left the far-right out of the game, reduced to an opposition force.
Still, Emmanuel Macron decided to ally with the right and to negotiate the tacit support of the far-right, taking the risk of putting French democracy at stake by placing the Rassemblement National as the complementary force to adopt his laws. The far-right deputies have control over the laws’ content because the Government needs their vote to adopt the texts. This is a very dangerous game for the country’s future, placing the far-right in the driver’s seat sooner than what could have been feared.
The country remains in the same situation as in September: an ungovernable Assembly, a fragile Government, a President who doesn’t listen to criticism, and, above all, the country doesn’t have a budget for 2025 (which is a pity when we are on Dec.18). Moreover, the country is in a major economic crisis, affecting the stability of the European Union.
An outdated system?
Today’s political turmoil promises months of uncertainty. As a French student, profoundly democratic, pro-European, and advocating for social democracy, I am worried for the future of my country. What will be the power given to the far-right in future governmental projects? Will François Bayrou’s government collapse as fast as Michel Barnier’s (90 days)?
Now, what if the problem was deeper? This whole situation of uncertainty leads us to reflect on the relevance of the French model in itself. It seems that the “French way of doing politics” is outdated. The centralization of power in the President’s hands can’t last anymore. Power must be given to the Parliament, and the Constitution looks like it must be changed to enter a regime based on legislative power rather than on the executive. Is it time for a 6th Republic? C’est mon avis…
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