The Horn of Africa is witnessing new unrest as Ethiopia seeks access to water and port facilities through Somalia. Ethiopia’s move, the largest country within Africa without any direct access to port facilities and growing water security concerns, has sparked tensions between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu, raising broader regional implications.
Ethiopia is Africa’s second-most populous country and became landlocked in 1993 following Eritrea’s independence. Since then, it has primarily relied on the Port of Djibouti which handles over 90% of its maritime trade. Over the last decade, increasing congestion and high tariffs at Djibouti’s ports have pushed Ethiopia to seek alternative trade routes, including access to ports in Somalia, Somaliland, and Kenya. Water access is another crucial factor as Ethiopia’s eastern regions suffer from recurring droughts and limited water resources. The Juba and Shabelle Rivers both originate in Ethiopia and flow into Somalia, providing an opportunity for potential irrigation expansion and hydropower development.
The Ethiopia-Somaliland Agreement
In January 2024, Ethiopia signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland, a self-declared but internationally unrecognized state. The MoU pushes collaboration between both countries regarding naval and commercial access to the Port of Berbera. In return, Ethiopia promised to recognize Somaliland as an independent state on an intercontinental scale. The agreement was met with strong condemnation from Somalia, which considers Somaliland part of its territory and sees Ethiopia’s move as a challenge to its sovereignty. Mogadishu has mobilized allies to oppose Ethiopia’s ambitions, calling on the African Union (AU) and the United Nations (UN) to reject any Ethiopian encroachment. Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud also strengthened ties with Egypt, which opposes Ethiopian water policies in the Nile Basin and could use this crisis to counterbalance Ethiopian influence.
Beyond maritime access, Ethiopia’s interest in the Juba and Shabelle Rivers is a growing concern for Somalia. Both rivers originate in Ethiopia’s highlands and are crucial for Somali agriculture and water supply. Ethiopia has been exploring water projects that could reduce downstream water availability in Somalia, triggering conflict over resource allocation. Unlike the Nile Basin Initiative between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt, no formal water-sharing treaty exists between Ethiopia and Somalia. If Ethiopia pursues water diversion projects, the risk of a major diplomatic and environmental crisis is high. Due to its fragile government and limited infrastructure, Somalia lacks the capacity to counter Ethiopian upstream projects effectively, making international mediation essential.
Geopolitical and Security Implications
Ethiopia’s moves are not occurring in a vacuum, as the Horn of Africa is a region marked by proxy conflicts and shifting alliances. Several developments could shape the outcome of Ethiopia’s maritime and water ambitions. Egypt and its strong opposition to Ethiopian control over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile could support Somalia diplomatically and militarily to block Ethiopian expansion into Somali waters. Ethiopia’s attempt to secure maritime access without Somalia’s approval could escalate into a broader conflict, drawing in Kenya, Eritrea, and Gulf states. A prolonged dispute could disrupt trade routes and investment, affecting not only Ethiopia and Somalia but also Djibouti and Somaliland, both of which rely on trade relations.
To avoid escalating tensions, Ethiopia must balance its economic ambitions with regional stability. A key approach is the establishment of a bilateral water-sharing framework for the Juba and Shabelle Rivers through negotiations between Ethiopia and Somalia. From a maritime access perspective, Ethiopia should seek a formal agreement with the Somali government rather than relying on unilateral deals with Somaliland. Regional organizations such as the African Union (AU) and the United Nations (UN) must play an active role in facilitating dialogue to prevent conflict.
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