In a region where rivers are lifelines, and scarcity breeds tension, the struggle for accessible water has become just as prevalent as the deserts surrounding it. In the face of urgent consequences of climate change, such as desertification and desalination, the topic of hydro politics has become a primary geopolitical topic on the agenda of nations in the region of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This issue is exacerbated by dam-building projects, such as Türkiye’s ‘Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP)’ which pursues the building of various dams and irrigation systems in the headwaters of the Tigris and Euphrates, and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which concerns the construction of a large dam on the Nile River Basin in Ethiopia. These projects offer significant benefits for the nations that undertake them, yet they have enormous impacts on the water supply for the countries downstream. Amidst climate change, self-interested geopolitical agenda, and water scarcity, the need for water cooperation is more urgent than ever.
The MENA region has been widely acknowledged as the most water-stressed region in the world, as most of its landscapes are characterized by flat and arid desert land. Furthermore, research shows that water is the most fundamental human need, and its systemic lack has serious political, cultural, and economic consequences, as well as drastic water security repercussions. Lack of access to water is an obstacle to education and a leading cause of infant mortality, and, when paired with violent intent, a destructive force that can escalate conflicts.
Access to water is heavily affected by geographical factors. Türkiye’s GAP project is a prime example. The transboundary river system of the Tigris and Euphrates originate in Türkiye, commencing in its Eastern mountains, the rivers travel through Syria and most of Iraq. With the GAP project, Türkiye unilaterally controls the headwaters of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, in which dams, irrigation systems, and water management plans have been established. This has resulted in a zero-sum game between Türkiye, Syria, and Iraq for the river’s benefits. Consequently, Türkiye’s various dam and hydropower projects have decreased Iraq’s water supply by 80 percent since 1975.
The recently built ‘Ilisu’ dam on the Tigris has been the most prominent spark of geopolitical tensions, with Iraq and Syria exploring international legal mechanisms and diplomatic channels to block the construction of the dam. Add climate change to the mix and the situation becomes even more dire. It is predicted that the flows of the Tigris and Euphrates will decrease by up to 60 percent at the end of this century due to climate change. All in all, a zero-sum game for water control is bound to create water shortages. Cooperation is not just useful, it is necessary.
On top of Türkiye’s GAP project, Ethiopia's GERD project on the Nile River Basin has also raised tensions in the MENA region between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. Historically, Egypt - and, to a lesser extent, Sudan - have held considerable control over the Nile River Basin due to colonial treaties in 1902 and 1929. These treaties granted hydro hegemony to Egypt and Sudan despite being their downstream position. Nonetheless, the introduction of the Ethiopian GERD project in 2011, combined with the political instability in Egypt due to the Arab Spring in the same year, these power balances are now being challenged, fuelling unrest in the bilateral relations among the nations.
This is further exacerbated by China’s financial involvement in the dam’s construction. Despite usually adhering to a policy of non-interference, in the GERD project, China seems to be taking a proactive political stance in favor of Ethiopia. Although Chinese representatives merely state that its involvement is ‘in the spirit of friendly cooperation’, the consequences of a power shift in the hydro management of the region can be drastic. Currently, there is no consensus on how to manage the benefits of the dam, but research shows, that if managed properly, the dam can have benefits for water resilience and electricity cooperation between the three nations. Thus, if inclusive dialogue and water diplomacy are at the forefront of addressing the problem, a productive solution can be found.
The advantages of cooperation are evident. Joint water projects in border areas in Iraq, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Türkiye, as well as Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan, are predicted to have the potential to irrigate thousands of hectares of land in the area. In the case of the Tigris and Euphrates, Turkish hydroelectricity, Iraqi irrigation, and potable water from Syria should be understood as a basis for cooperation and coordination, not as a geopolitical leverage tool. In the case of the GERD project, the electrical and water benefits of the dam can be shared to ensure resilience and economic prosperity of the whole region rather than solely one nation.
Most crucially, water can be a platform on which peaceful processes can be based. Transboundary water solutions can de-escalate tensions and serve as a starting point for cooperative solutions. In the latter half of the twentieth century, over 200 water treaties were negotiated successfully, serving as tools for promoting stability and peace. Therefore, water cooperation in the MENA region is essential for the contemporary problems the region is facing. In the words of Ban Ki-Moon: “let us commit to invest in water security as a means to ensure long-term international peace.” Thus, a productive solution to water scarcity is a cooperative solution.
If this article made you curious and left you wanting to read more, here are a few links:
An overview of the GAP project and its major rationales → https://doi.org/10.1080/19448953.2018.1506287
A contemporary report on water security in the Middle Eastern region → https://www.csis.org/programs/middle-east-program/major-projects/middle-east-transformation-initiative/water-and-future
YouTube video that addresses the major facets of the water crisis in the Middle East → https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FHksyApxmE
Podcast of the United Nations about water cooperation with Nigeria’s Federal Minister of Water Resources, Suleiman Adamu, and Sonja Kopper, the Secretary to the United Nations Water Convention. → https://news.un.org/en/audio/2023/04/1135037
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